Climate Modeling Accuracy and Public Trust: Mediation of Communication Clarity and Moderation of Scientific Literacy

Abstract

Climate modeling plays a crucial role in predicting climate change impacts and guiding public policy. However, public trust in climate science depends not only on the accuracy of climate models but also on the clarity of communication and the audience’s scientific literacy. This study investigates the effect of climate modeling accuracy (CMA) on public trust (PT), emphasizing the mediating role of communication clarity (CC) and the moderating effect of scientific literacy (SL). A quantitative survey of 260 respondents from diverse demographics was conducted, and data were analyzed using SmartPLS. Findings indicate that CMA significantly enhances PT, with communication clarity partially mediating this relationship. Clear explanations and transparent reporting of modeling assumptions increase public comprehension and confidence. Scientific literacy moderates the CMA–PT link, with individuals possessing higher scientific literacy demonstrating stronger trust in accurate climate models. The results highlight the combined importance of technical precision, effective communication, and audience understanding in fostering trust in climate science. Practically, scientists and policymakers should prioritize transparent, accessible communication strategies and consider varying levels of scientific literacy to enhance public engagement and confidence in climate projections.